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青藏高原巴塘断裂带地震滑坡危险性预测研究

杨志华 郭长宝 吴瑞安 钟宁 任三绍

杨志华, 郭长宝, 吴瑞安, 钟宁, 任三绍. 青藏高原巴塘断裂带地震滑坡危险性预测研究[J]. 水文地质工程地质, 2021, 48(5): 91-101. doi: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202009024
引用本文: 杨志华, 郭长宝, 吴瑞安, 钟宁, 任三绍. 青藏高原巴塘断裂带地震滑坡危险性预测研究[J]. 水文地质工程地质, 2021, 48(5): 91-101. doi: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202009024
YANG Zhihua, GUO Changbao, WU Ruian, ZHONG Ning, REN Sanshao. Predicting seismic landslide hazard in the Batang fault zone of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2021, 48(5): 91-101. doi: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202009024
Citation: YANG Zhihua, GUO Changbao, WU Ruian, ZHONG Ning, REN Sanshao. Predicting seismic landslide hazard in the Batang fault zone of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2021, 48(5): 91-101. doi: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202009024

青藏高原巴塘断裂带地震滑坡危险性预测研究

doi: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202009024
基金项目: 中国地质调查局地质调查项目(DD20190319);国家自然科学基金项目(41877279;41731287);中国地质科学院基本科研业务费项目(所科研30)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    杨志华(1982-),男,博士,副研究员,主要从事地质灾害评价方面的研究。E-mail:yangzh99@163.com

    通讯作者:

    吴瑞安(1991-),男,博士,助理研究员,主要从事地质灾害评价方面的研究。E-mail:648266126@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: P642.2

Predicting seismic landslide hazard in the Batang fault zone of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

  • 摘要: 全新世以来青藏高原东部巴塘断裂带活动强烈,地形地貌和地质构造复杂,历史地震频发,并诱发大量滑坡灾害。基于巴塘断裂带地震滑坡长期防控的需要,在分析区域地质灾害成灾背景和发育分布特征的基础上,采用Newmark模型完成了巴塘断裂带50年超越概率10%的潜在地震滑坡危险性预测评价,并完成地震滑坡危险性区划。结果表明:巴塘断裂带及其临近的金沙江断裂带区域、金沙江及其支流沿岸具有较高的潜在地震滑坡危险性,地震滑坡危险区具有沿断裂带和大江大河等峡谷区分布的总体趋势,受活动断裂和地形地貌影响显著;距离断层越近、坡度越大的斜坡,地震滑坡危险性越高;规划建设中的川藏铁路经巴塘县德达乡、白玉县沙马乡,向西北延伸,跨越金沙江,可以穿越较少的地震滑坡危险区,金沙江水电工程规划建设需加强潜在地震滑坡危害研判及防控。巴塘断裂带潜在地震滑坡危险性评价结果可为区域城镇开发和重大工程规划建设的地震滑坡长期防控提供科学参考。
  • 图  1  巴塘断裂带地质背景图

    Figure  1.  Geological setting of the Batang fault zone

    图  2  巴塘断裂带地质灾害分布图

    Figure  2.  Geohazard map of the Batang fault zone

    图  3  巴塘断裂带典型地震滑坡特征

    Figure  3.  Characteristics of typical seismic landslides in the Batang fault zone

    图  4  Newmark累积位移计算过程示意图[15]

    Figure  4.  Calculation process diagram of Newmark cumulative displacement[15]

    图  5  巴塘断裂带工程地质岩组

    Figure  5.  Engineering geological groups in the Batang fault zone

    图  6  巴塘断裂带地形坡度

    Figure  6.  Terrain slope in the Batang fault zone

    图  7  巴塘断裂带斜坡静态稳定系数

    Figure  7.  Static factor of safety in the Batang fault zone

    图  8  巴塘断裂带临界加速度

    Figure  8.  Critical acceleration in the Batang fault zone

    图  9  巴塘断裂带地震动峰值地面加速度

    Figure  9.  Seismic peak ground acceleration in the Batang fault zone

    图  10  巴塘断裂带斜坡位移

    Figure  10.  Slope displacement in the Batang fault zone

    图  11  巴塘断裂带潜在概率地震滑坡危险性分布图

    Figure  11.  Potential probabilistic seismic landslide hazard in the Batang fault zone

    图  12  潜在地震滑坡极高和高危险区分布特征

    Figure  12.  Distribution characteristics of very high and high seismic landslides hazard zone

    表  1  巴塘断裂带工程地质岩组物理力学性质

    Table  1.   Physical and mechanical properties of engineering geological groups in the Batang fault zone

    ID工程地质岩组c′/kPaφ′/(°)γ/(kN·m−3
    1坚硬的厚层状砂岩岩组263326
    2较坚硬-坚硬的中-厚层状砂
    岩夹砾岩、泥岩、板岩岩组
    253225
    3软硬相间的中-厚层状砂岩、泥岩
    夹灰岩、泥质灰岩及其互层岩组
    233024
    4软弱-较坚硬薄-中厚层状砂岩、
    泥岩及砾岩、泥岩互层岩组
    222823
    5软弱的薄层状泥岩、页岩岩组202721
    6坚硬的中-厚层状灰岩及
    白云岩岩组
    243125
    7较坚硬的薄-中厚层状灰岩、
    泥质灰岩岩组
    233024
    8软硬相间的中-厚层状灰岩、
    白云岩夹砂岩、泥岩、千枚岩、板岩岩组
    222923
    9较坚硬-坚硬薄-中厚层状板岩、
    千枚岩与变质砂岩互层岩组
    212822
    10较弱-较坚硬的薄-中厚层状千枚岩、
    片岩夹灰岩、砂岩、火山岩岩组
    202621
    11坚硬的块状玄武岩为主的岩组273429
    12坚硬块状花岗岩、安山岩、闪长岩岩组263328
    13软质散体结构岩组152518
      注:ID与图5中的工程地质岩组编号一致,c′为有效黏聚力,φ′为有效内摩擦角,γ为岩土体重度。
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-09-08
  • 修回日期:  2021-01-25
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-09-09
  • 刊出日期:  2021-09-10

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