ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    联合InSAR与神经网络的范家坪滑坡形变监测及预测研究

    Combination of InSAR and neural networks for the deformation monitoring and prediction of Fanjiaping landslide

    • 摘要: 传统滑坡地表形变监测手段存在着监测范围小、复杂地形信息获取难度高、经济成本投入量大等缺点,且大型复杂滑坡变形时间序列的非线性、不确定性变化特征也一直是滑坡形变监测及预测研究中亟待解决的难题。以三峡库区范家坪滑坡为研究对象,利用差分干涉测量短基线集时序分析技术(small baseline subset InSAR,SBAS-InSAR),结合地表GPS监测数据进行滑坡形变监测,基于SBAS-InSAR时间序列数据及长短时记忆网络(long short term memory,LSTM)开展滑坡形变预测研究。结果表明:研究时段内,范家坪滑坡SBAS-InSAR形变监测结果与地表GPS监测数据所反映出的形变区域及形变量级基本保持一致,与现场调查情况相吻合;范家坪滑坡的位移变形与坡体的高程分布及库水位条件密切相关,当库水位高于160 m时,滑坡前缘阻滑段主要受“浮托减重”效应影响,当库水位低于160 m时,渗流压力占主导作用,水位下降阶段的位移变形总体明显大于水位上升阶段,库水位下降速率对范家坪滑坡的位移变形产生重要影响,且木鱼包滑坡区相较于谭家河滑坡区对库水位下降速率的变形响应更为强烈;将LSTM神经网络模型与传统神经网络模型的预测结果进行效果对比、置信区间估计及相关性检验,结果显示,LSTM神经网络模型的预测结果始终保持较高的预测精度,验证了InSAR与神经网络结合的滑坡监测与预测方法能够为三峡库区地质灾害防治提供重要的数据参考和信息支撑。

       

      Abstract: Traditional methods for monitoring surface deformation of landslides have significant limitations, including small monitoring coverage, difficulty in acquiring information in complex terrains, and high economic costs. Furthermore, the nonlinear and uncertain characteristics of deformation time series for large and complex landslides remain a critical challenge in landslide deformation monitoring and prediction research. Taking the Fanjiaping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as the study area, small baseline subset InSAR (SBAS-InSAR) combined with surface GPS monitoring data was used for landslide deformation monitoring. Based on the SBAS-InSAR time series data and long short term memory (LSTM), a study on landslide deformation prediction was conducted. The results show that during the study period, the SBAS-InSAR deformation monitoring results of the Fanjiaping landslide were largely consistent with the deformation areas and magnitude levels indicated by surface GPS monitoring data, aligning with on-site investigation findings. The displacement deformation of the Fanjiaping landslide was found to be closely related to the elevation distribution of the slope and reservoir water level conditions. When the reservoir water level exceeds 160m, the influence of seepage pressure on slope displacement deformation is minimal. However, when the reservoir water level falls below 160m, seepage pressure becomes the dominant factor, with displacement deformation during the water level decline phase significantly exceeding that during the water level rise phase. Additionally, the rate of reservoir water level decline has a substantial impact on the displacement deformation of the Fanjiaping landslide, with the Muyubao landslide area showing a more pronounced deformation response to the rate of reservoir water level decline compared to the Tanjiahe landslide area. By comparing the predictive performance, confidence interval estimation, and correlation tests of the LSTM model and traditional neural network models, the results indicate that the LSTM model consistently maintains high predictive accuracy. This validates that the combination of InSAR and neural networks for landslide monitoring and prediction can provide critical data references and information support for geological disaster prevention and mitigation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

       

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