ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    考虑影响因子重要性选择和土壤含水率的滑坡易发性评价

    Landslide susceptibility evaluation considering the importance selection of influencing factors and soil moisture content

    • 摘要: 在滑坡易发性评价体系中,尚未形成统一和科学的筛选影响滑坡发育因子的标准,导致滑坡易发性评价结果的不一致性问题。为提高滑坡易发性评估体系的准确性,提出一种基于机器学习(ML)的考虑因子重要性选择与土壤含水率的滑坡易发性评价体系。以云南省富民县为例,结合遥感数据、辅助数据和现场调查数据,编制滑坡历史记录;利用SAR卫星后向散射系数和从DEM中提取的地表粗糙度来提取土壤含水率因子,通过XGBoost回归和Lasso回归模型对15个评价因子进行重要性排序,并对滑坡影响因子(LIFs)进行多重共线性评估,筛选出最具鉴别性的滑坡影响因子;用LightGBM和随机森林模型分别在因子重要性选择前与选择后对富民县进行滑坡易发性评价。实验结果表明,土壤含水率因子对滑坡发育有较大影响;经过因子重要性选择后的滑坡易发性评价结果准确性更高;LightGBM模型在评估中表现出优越的评估性能(AUC=0.91),表明LightGBM模型可以在滑坡易发性评价中较好的应用。本研究着重讨论了因子重要性选择对滑坡易发性评价体系的影响,并有效地将面状土壤含水率因子纳入滑坡影响因子中,提高了易发性评价结果的精确性和可靠性,为预防滑坡灾害提供新思路。

       

      Abstract: The current landslide susceptibility assessment system lacks unified and scientifically grounded standards for selecting factors that influence landslide development, leading to inconsistencies in evaluation results. To improve the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility assessment system, a method based on machine learning (ML) , which innovatively integrates factor importance selection and soil moisture content was proposed. Focusing on landslides in the Fumin County in Yunnan Province, this study integrated remote sensing data, auxiliary data, and field survey data to compile comprehensive landslide history records. Soil moisture content factors were extracted using SAR satellite backscatter coefficients and DEM data, and 15 evaluation factors were ranked for importance using XGBoost and Lasso regression models. Multicollinearity assessments of landslide influencing factors (LIFs) were conducted to identify the most distinctive factors. The landslide susceptibility in the Fumin County was evaluated using LightGBM and Random Forest models, before and after factor importance selection. The results show a significant improvement in assessment accuracy after factor selection, with the LightGBM model exhibiting superior evaluation performance with an AUC value of 0.91, demonstrating its effective application in landslide susceptibility assessment. This study highlights the impact of factor importance selection on the landslide susceptibility assessment system, effectively incorporates areal soil moisture content factors into landslide influencing factors, and optimizes the precision and reliability of susceptibility assessment results, providing new insights for landslide disaster prevention.

       

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