ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    基于确定系数的滑坡易发性梯度评价模型优化研究

    Gradient boosting model optimized by the certainty factor method to landslide susceptibility assessment

    • 摘要: 梯度提升模型(GBM)已在滑坡易发性评价中表现出较强的预测性能,但因素的复杂性严重影响着其稳定性和准确性。为从输入层面提高该模型在易发性评价中的准确度,研究确定性系数(CF)联接法处理数据对梯度提升模型的优化效果。以浙江省永嘉县为研究区,通过斯皮尔曼相关系数和沙普利(Shapley)值筛选出10个评价因子,采用CF联接法优化自适应(Ada)、温和自适应(Gentle)、逻辑(Logit)和随机欠采样(RUS)4种梯度提升模型并进行对比。结果表明,研究区对滑坡影响最显著的因素由大至小分别为:高程、植被归一化指数、道路、坡度、水系、土地类型、泥沙运移指数、植被类型、岩性、降雨量;通过CF联接法优化可以使GBM模型的Kappa系数提升0.04~0.14,经过受试者特征曲线(ROC)验证,除自适应提升模型预测性能提高较小外,其余模型的AUC值可以提高1%~7%,其中,CF-Logit Boosting模型精度最高;优化后的模型对极低易发和极高易发区的划分更加准确,表明CF联接法可以提高模型的准确性和稳定性。基于CF联接法优化的GBM模型可为减少数据复杂度、提高滑坡易发性评价的准确性提供理论参考。

       

      Abstract: The Gradient Boosting Model (GBM) has demonstrated strong predictive performance in landslide susceptibility assessment; however, the complexity of factors limits its stability and accuracy. To improve the model's accuracy in susceptibility assessments from the input level, this study explored the optimization effect of the Certainty Factor (CF) coupling method on the GBM. using Yongjia County in Zhejiang Province as a case study, 10 evaluation factors were selected based on Spearman correlation coefficient and Shapley value. The CF coupling method was applied to optimize four GBM models: Ada, Gentle, Logit, and RUS, which were then compared. The results show that the factors most significantly affecting landslides in the study area, in descending order, are: elevation, normalized vegetation index, roads, slope, water systems, land type, sediment transport index, vegetation type, lithology, and rainfall. Optimization using the CF coupling method improved the Kappa coefficient of GBM models by 0.04 to 0.14. ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve validation showed that, except for the adaptive boosting model with a smaller performance increase, the AUC (Area Under Curve) values of the other models increased by 1% to 7%, with the CF-Logit Boosting model achieving the highest accuracy. The optimized models demonstrated better distinction between very low and very high susceptibility areas, indicating that the CF coupling method can enhance both the accuracy and stability of the models. The GBM models optimized by CF coupling method could provides a theoretical basis for reducing data complexity and improving the accuracy of landslide susceptibility assessments.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回