ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    融合机载LiDAR与数值模拟技术的舟曲硝水沟泥石流危险性量化评价研究

    Quantitative evaluation of mudslide hazard in Zhouqu Xiaoshuigou by integrating airborne LiDAR and numerical simulation technology

    • 摘要: 舟曲县地处青藏高原过渡地带,为典型的高山峡谷地貌,境内沟谷纵横,断裂带发育,山区泥石流灾害频发,对人居安全和城镇建筑造成重大威胁。2022年7月,舟曲县地质灾害精细化风险调查发现,硝水沟后缘存在多处残坡积土物源,汛期暴发泥石流的可能性大。本文以硝水沟泥石流为典型实例,利用无人机搭载LiDAR结合光学摄影技术获取硝水沟地形数据,通过现场调查与三维建模分析,获取滑坡体积、泥石流物源总量等关键参数;采用FLO-2D软件模拟分析了降雨频率为10%、5%、2%和1%条件下的硝水沟泥石流启动-运动-堆积全过程,并进行了危险性分区评价。研究结果表明:硝水沟内总物源约为9×104 m3,在极端暴雨条件下易发生泥石流灾害;模拟降雨频率逐渐增大,泥石流的规模变大,表现为泥石流最大堆积深度、流速及堆积范围均逐渐增大;泥石流危险区主要位于硝水沟的主沟道、支沟沟道及沟口道路两侧。研究成果可为当地泥石流防灾减灾提供理论参考。

       

      Abstract: Zhouqu County, located in the transitional zone of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, features characteristic high-relief mountain and canyon landforms. The area is crisscrossed with ravines, developed fault zones, and frequent mudslides in mountainous areas, posing a significant threat to human safety and urban construction. In July 2022, a refined risk investigation of geological hazards in Zhouqu County found that there were multiple residual soil sources at the rear edge of the nitrate ditch and a high possibility of mudslides during the flood season. This study takes the debris flow in the nitrate ditch as a representative case, using unmanned aerial vehicles equipped with LiDAR combined with optical photography technology to obtain terrain data of the nitrate ditch. Field surveys and 3D modeling were employed to estimate key parameters such as landslide volume and total debris source material. The FLO-2D software was used to simulate and analyze the entire process of initiation, movement, and accumulation of debris flow in a nitrate ditch under rainfall frequencies of 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1%. followed by hazard zoning evaluation. The results show that the total material source in the nitrate ditch is approximately 9 × 104 m3, which is prone to debris flow disasters under extreme rainstorm conditions. As the frequency of simulated rainfall gradually increases, the scale of debris flows also increases, manifested as the maximum depth, velocity, and range of debris flow accumulation gradually increasing, The debris flow hazard zone is mainly located on both sides of the main channel, branch channel, and mouth road of the nitrate ditch. This study can provide basic information for local debris flow disaster prevention and reduction.

       

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