ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    基于小波分析与长短时记忆网络的珊瑚岛礁地下水水位动态分析与预测

    Groundwater level dynamics and prediction in coral islands using wavelet analysis and long short-term memory network

    • 摘要: 地下水是珊瑚岛礁唯一的自然淡水供给,精准预测其水位动态对岛礁水资源管理与生态保护具有重要意义。针对珊瑚岛礁长序列原位监测数据较为匮乏,水文地质参数获取难度大,高频监测数据的动态预测研究尤为不足的问题,基于南海某典型珊瑚岛礁2021年11月1日—2024年8月10日连续地下水观测数据,分析了不同时间尺度下地下水水位的动态规律,并构建了一种小波分析与长短时记忆网络相结合的混合预测模型(Wavelet-LSTM模型),实现对珊瑚岛礁地下水水位的预测。结果表明,地下水水位变化范围为−0.5~2.5 m,平均水位为0.90 m,呈现出显著的多时间尺度波动特征,主要包括季节性周期、月周期、日周期和高频脉冲式变化。其中,季节性变化和高频变化特征主要受降水控制,月周期和日周期变化则与潮汐作用密切相关。验证结果表明,该模型在研究区表现出较高的预测精度,展现了良好的可移植性与稳健性,在同类地质环境的独立岛礁研究中可借鉴。本研究构建的Wavelet-LSTM模型能有效表征珊瑚岛礁地下水系统的多时间尺度动态特征,并具有一定的泛化能力,可为数据稀缺岛礁的地下水资源评估与管理提供可行的技术路径。

       

      Abstract: Groundwater is the sole natural freshwater supply on coral islands. Accurately predicting its level dynamics is of great significance for island water resource management and ecological protection. Currently, long-term in situ monitoring data for coral island groundwater levels remain relatively limited, hydrogeological parameters across different islands are difficult to obtain, and dynamic prediction based on high-frequency monitoring data is particularly lacking. Based on continuous groundwater observation data from a typical coral island in the South China Sea between 1 November 2021 and 10 August 2024, this study analyzed the dynamic patterns of groundwater levels across different time scales. Subsequently, a hybrid prediction model combining wavelet analysis with a long short-term memory network (wavelet-LSTM model) was constructed to achieve the prediction of groundwater levels in coral islands. The results indicate that the groundwater level ranged from −0.5 to 2.5 m, with an average level of 0.90 m. It presented significant multi-time-scale fluctuation characteristics, primarily including seasonal cycles, monthly cycles, daily cycles, and high-frequency pulse-like variations. Among these, seasonal and high-frequency variations were mainly controlled by precipitation, while monthly and daily cyclical changes were closely related to tidal dynamics. Model validation demonstrates that the proposed wavelet-LSTM model achieved high predictive accuracy and showed excellent robustness. Moreover, the model showed strong transferability to independent coral-island settings with similar hydrogeological characteristics, highlighting its potential for regional application. The wavelet-LSTM model constructed in this study can effectively characterize the multi-time-scale dynamic features of coral island groundwater systems. Its demonstrated generalization capability offers a practical and efficient approach for groundwater assessment and sustainable water-resource management on coral islands where hydrogeological observations are limited.

       

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