ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    基于不确定性的地下水污染风险评价研究进展

    Risk assessment of groundwater pollution based on uncertainty

    • 摘要: 地下水污染风险研究在工程决策中具有重要意义。但地下水系统本身具有各种不确定性,基于这些不确定性的地下水污染风险评价也因此具有不确定性,而且贯穿整个地下水污染风险评价过程。所以,进行不确定性分析是对地下水污染风险进行评价时的必要步骤。一般来讲,基于不确定性分析的地下水污染风险评价结果更可靠,因此也更具有实用价值。本文在对不确定性进行分类(随机不确定性和模糊不确定性)的基础上,通过大量文献调研和分析,对目前国内外用于地下水污染风险评价分析的不确定性分析方法(包括随机理论方法、模糊理论方法、随机-模糊耦合方法等)进行了归纳总结,并基于各种方法目前的研究现状,分析了不确定性理论在地下水污染风险评价研究中的发展前景。

       

      Abstract: It is very important to study the risk assessment of groundwater pollution in the decision of the project. However, the result of the groundwater pollution risk assessment has uncertainty because of the uncertainty of the groundwater system itself. The uncertainty exists in the progress of groundwater pollution risk assessment, and it is necessary to analyze the uncertainty during the groundwater pollution risk assessment. In general, the result of groundwater pollution risk assessment based on uncertainty is more practical and valuable compared with the determinate groundwater system. This paper illustrates the classification of uncertainty (stochastic and fuzzy uncertainty) in the groundwater pollution risk assessment, summarizes the methods of uncertainty analysis (stochastic theory method, fuzzy theory method, integrated fuzzystochastic method and other methods) in the field of groundwater pollution risk assessment at home and abroad. In the end, the development of the theory of uncertainty in the future research of groundwater pollution risk assessment is also based on the current research situation of all the methods.

       

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