基于LHS方法的地下水流模型不确定性分析

Uncertainty analysis of groundwater models based on the Latin Hypercube sampling technique

摘要: 本文以理想地下水流问题为例,采用拉丁超立方取样(LHS)方法分析地下水流模型中水文地质参数以及源汇项等的不确定性对模拟结果的影响。另外,利用Spearman偏(秩)相关系数和标准(秩)回归系数分析方法对参数的灵敏度进行分析。结果表明LHS方法是地下水流模型随机分析的有效途径。

Abstract: This paper analyzed the impact of the uncertainty of hydrogeological parameters and source/sink on the simulation results under the ideal groundwater flow conditions by using the Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS).The Spearman partial(rank) correlation coefficient and the standard(rank) regression coefficient are adopted to analyze the parameter sensitivity.The results indicate that LHS is an effective method for the stochastic analysis of groundwater flow models.