灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在滑坡变形预测中的应用

Application of renewal gray GM(1,1) model to prediction of landslide deformation with two case studies

摘要: 由于常规GM(1,1)模型用于预测时,精度较高的仅仅是最近的几个数据,越往未来发展,该模型的预测精度就越弱。针对常规GM(1,1)模型存在的不足,文章建立了灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)滑坡预测模型,并利用该模型对向加坡滑坡和链子崖危岩体GA监测点位移变形进行了预测。结果表明,灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型精度较高,预测误差较小,有很好的利用价值。

Abstract: An ordinary GM(1,1) model is generally useful for short-term prediction.Considering the deficiency of the GM(1,1) model,an gray information renewal GM(1,1) model of landslide is established.The model is applied to predict the landslide of the Xiangjiapo and Lian Ziya hazardous rock masses(GA).The results show that the precision of prediction is relatively high and the prediction error is comparatively low.