基于因子分析方法解析降雨分量的渗流统计模型及应用

Statistical model for seepage based on factor analysis for calculating rainfall factor and its application

摘要: 基于原型监测资料的渗流统计模型可用于分析枢纽区的渗流动态,而其中因子的选择影响模型的有效性。针对抽水蓄能电站环境变量监测频率的不一致性,对输水系统所在山体的地下水水位进行因子分析并对提取出的公共因子进行识别,而后将其中的降雨因子应用于基于滞后效应的渗流统计模型中。计算结果表明,与不考虑降雨因子相比较,所建模型可以有效地提高模型精度。因而,该模型适用于环境变量监测频率不一致或缺少相关资料的情形。

Abstract: Statistical model for seepage is an effective tool to analyze the flow dynamics.The accuracy of the model depends on the factors involving in the model.As the pumped storage power station has a special running condition,a factor analysis of the groundwater level is carried out and the extracted rainfall factor is applied in the statistical model for seepage based on lag effect.The results show that the model has a better accuracy compared to the non-rainfall one.Conclusions can be drawn that thi...