ISSN 1000-3665 CN 11-2202/P

    我国县域单元地质灾害风险评估

    Risk assessment of geo-hazard of China in county unit

    • 摘要: 文中地质灾害包括崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面塌陷四类突发性地质灾害。采用地质灾害危险性与承灾体易损性分项测算,定性综合评估的方式实现我国县域单元地质灾害风险评估。将承灾体易损性分为人口安全易损性与资产易损性,用因灾死亡人口比与因灾直接经济损失比表征。基于以历史数据分析指导未来预测的思想,以国土资源部2001—2015年地质灾害灾情数据为样本,提出了人口安全易损性与资产易损性的分级标准。对我国2869个县域单元进行地质灾害风险评价,结果表明共有216个地质灾害高风险单元、643个中风险单元和2010个低风险单元。地质灾害高风险区集中分布于乌蒙山区、四川盆地周边山区以及云南西部和西藏东南部。

       

      Abstract: In this paper, geo-hazards include landslide, collapse, debris flow and ground collapse. By calculating the risk of geo-hazard and vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies separately, we evaluated the geo-hazard risk of county territory unit by qualitative comprehensive assessment. First, we separated the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies into population safety vulnerability and property vulnerability, then we use the rate of dead population and rate of direct economic loss that caused by geo-hazard as representation as index. Based on historical data analysis guiding the future prediction, combing with the database of geo-hazard situation during 2001—2005 from Ministry of Land and Resources, we proposed the grading standard of population safety vulnerability and property vulnerability. Based on the geological hazard risk evaluation from the 2869 county territory units, 216 units are in the high-risk, 643 units are in middle-risk and 2010 are in low-risk. The high-risk areas are dominated in Wumeng mountainous, Mountainous around Sichuan Basin, Western Yunnan and Southeast part of Tibet.

       

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